For the last month or so, all I’ve been hearing about is Google vs. Apple, Google vs. Microsoft, and Google vs. Every Other two-bit software corporation out there.
Yes it’s true Google has stepped on everyone’s toes; Apple with their Android OS for mobile devices and the G1, Microsoft with the announcement of Chrome OS, Microsoft, Firefox and Apple with the Chrome Browser, Skype with Google Voice, and so on and so forth.
In short Google is pissing… or has pissed… everyone off, all the while, having a good laugh about it. But does Google pose a real threat to everyone? Here’s my predictions on the top 3 battles and where they will eventually go:
Search Engines:
Since 1998, I’ve used Google’s search engine to find everything… from Warez to Porn, Music to Movie and the like. And since 1998, Google has gained strength (and the market share) in the Search Market. The last press release fromComScore.com shows Google holding onto 65% of the market share as of June 2009. Yahoo comes in second with 20% and Microsoft in third with 8%.
As far as anyone stealing the thunder from Google when it comes to search, it’s going to seem like an endless fight. Google has simplicity and a solid user base (think of it as Firefox vs. Internet Explorer). Everyone grew up with Internet Explorer (I used Netscape prior to it becoming bloatware/malware crap) and they just don’t want to let go.
Back in the mid to late 90’s, people used Lycos, AltaVista, Yahoo and others to do their searching. What happened was all these sites became complicated, bloated, useless link farms. But there was one that had just arrived; one that refused to give into the trends of the other assaholic search providers… that provider was Google. And in over the last decade, they have not changed. Other than a few extra links, people who use Google’s service look at a page that hasn’t really changed since 1998.
Microsoft has an answer, or so they think, called Bing. I tried out Bing and all Bing is… is a dressed up Google. And some of the results sent me to different search engine results.
THE PREDICTION:
Google will control the search market for another 20 years at least. They have a strong hold and Yahoo and Microsoft aren’t going to shake them out of that tree without a fucking atomic bomb. I predict that Google will be laid to rest eventually… maybe during my life time… but it won’t be by MicroYahoo. It’s going to be by someone they underestimated or never saw coming. This company is going to pop out of nowhere and from the shadows ninja style. Someone’s going to kick Google’s ass… but not for a long time.
Smartphones:
Google has this wonderful little operating system for Smartphone’s… it’s called Android. If the name doesn’t scream BADASS, than you need to see this phone for yourself. It is the first mobile open source operating system to be launched on a Smartphone and it was a big win for T-Mobile to launch the first Android phone (The T-Mobile G1). It comes out of the box with the bare essentials to get you up and running. And here’s the best part… if an installed app… say like the default browser (Chrome), doesn’t work well for you or have the features you require, chances are that someone has built a better browser (Steel) and has launched it on the Android Market… and even better… chances are that it’s free.. YES FREE. There are a ton of great applications in the Android Market for free, or for dirt cheap and half of those rival what the iPhone applications can do.
Oh and did we mention, Google does NOT block apps that rival there software (someone built a better browser than Chrome)!
Yes I know it’s a dead horse but if you didn’t here, Apple is being investigated by the FCC for blocking Google Voice… even though I’m sure it was all on at&t’s end. But it was the shot heard round the world. Bloggers and tech journalists are slowly rallying around in circles and having iPhone/iPod Touch bonfires. Word is now circulating that Apple and there iPhone is not what it’s cracked up to be. Complaints of over-priced apps, broken phones, bad tech support, dropped calls, horrid 3G networks… have placed Apple and at&t, (at least in the mobile phone department) up on the “YOUR FULL OF SHIT AND ARE A BUNCH OF DOUCHEBAGS” pedestal.
Oh did we mention that with this bad press Apple is getting now, Microsoft has made an announcement that they have opened iPhone App porting to any Windows OS based phones?! Damn boys… talk about playing dirty. Oh and Palm isn’t saying shit BTW.
While Apple is sticking to the same hardware specs and carrier, Google and Microsoft has been distributing there mobile OS’s to any phone carrier/manufacturer that will take them. In fact expect the first Android Phone on the Sprint/Nextel market to drop in the public’s lap sometime soon. Of course Verizon isn’t ready cuz they just want to do their own thing, and at&t, well… they’re making a killing on Apples piece of shit phone and they don’t want to piss off their cash cow. But needless to say, Android has several phones lined up to be launched by the end of 2009 and a ton more within 2010 between both Sprint and T-Mobile.
Oh did I mention that the Android OS is open source? It’s built off the Linux Kernel and is a fun little toy to play around with in the advanced operating systems circle, but for the general public, this means variety. Sprint already stated that it will be launching a modified Android OS… and Google doesn’t give a shit cuz… well… it’s open fucking source. Also expect future T-Mobile Android Phones to look different than what the G1 has shown us.
Apples iPhone, App Store and there other relentless bullshit is proprietary. While anyone can make an iPhone App, in the end Apple has final say on what sits in the App Store. Google has the same setup with Android Market… but they’re more laxed about it. Microsoft… well… Microsoft is just Microsoft. Palm is just being quiet… trying hard NOT TO FUCKING DIE!! In the end though… If things stay the current course, I’m calling in favor of Google and there Android OS. They’re playing it smart buy opening it up to anyone and everyone and they’ve had a great relationship with T-Mobile and it sounds like thinks are working out well with Sprint. I’ll say this though… IF… and this is a big IF… if Apple realizes the potential of opening the iPhone to other carriers, Apple will win cuz everyone wants an iPhone, despite the press… but no one wants to deal with fucking at&t. But as I stated, Apple needs to loosing the reigns a bit, tell at&t to go fuck their mothers, and release the iPhone on other carriers; and if that happens… I’ll call it a 50/50 split between Google and Apple.
THE PREDICTION:
It will be a one sided battle over cell phones if Apple doesn’t pull their heads out of there ass. Apple needs to branch out more and tell at&t to shove it. Android got a slow start, but is starting to pick up steam. If Apple branches out, it will be an epic battle for the next 10 years with Apple and Google neck and neck.. if not.. Google will dominate.
Personal Computers:
Ok the Chrome OS. We’ve all heard about it. Everyone is interested in it. Everyone’s talking about it. Even the CIO’s are curious. I’m a subscriber to a few Corporate IT magazines and the multi-million dollar question is: “How will Chrome OS effect enterprises”?
Ok… here is an excerpt from Google’s Official Blog about Chrome OS: “Google Chrome OS is an open source, lightweight operating system that will initially be targeted at netbooks”. Ok CIO’s of the world… unless your going to switch your entire infrastructure over to netbooks… Chrome OS is NOT for you!!
Everyone is starting to call Chrome OS the Windows Killer. Ok… let’s discuss this shall we…
Anyone that knows me personally knows for the last several years I’ve been looking to leave Microsoft behind in exchange for an Operating System(OS) with more power and better yet… free. I have YET to see this OS. I have played with several different distros of Linux and have been happy for awhile, until either I hit a hardware or a software snafu. I am a gamer in my spare time and rather than partition my PC for both Linux and Windows, I’d much rather deal with one OS that’ll do it all for me. The only time I switch OS’s is when I’m doing web dev work. I prefer my MacBook to do all my web and graphics work on rather than Windows. But everything else I do is on Windows. My sound editing, and video editing is all done on windows cuz my little MacBook can’t handle it all ad I don’t have the 2000+ bucks to fork out for a Desktop Mac.
Now one of the biggest things Google is trying to sell on us is that Chrome OS will be focusing on Online Applications, Online based software, and Cloud Computing. While I feel this is a big step in computer technology, let’s look at the world as a whole for a moment shall we?
Only about 15% of the general personal computer market (this is a guesstimate BTW) use online applications. Now I’m not talking about Corporations, I’m talking about the general user… you and me and your mom. The other 85% rely on desktop based software… or software that is installed on a hard drive on your computer. When you think about using online based app’s to do your bills, word processing, spreadsheets and so on… the first thing that comes up is security. While Google said the focus on their new OS will be security… one must ask… exactly how secure is ANYTHING online? This will scare the general user’s away cuz desktop based software is, at this time, more secure than web based.
When I think about Google’s security speech, I am reminded of the movie Tommy Boy in which Chris Farley’s character if trying to convince an auto shop owner to carry his brake pads. The shop owner is worried that the brake pad’s he’s trying to sell doesn’t have a guarantee on the box. I remember the speech going something like “If you want me to take a shit in a box and mark it guaranteed, I can… I have time”. Pretty much what I’m trying to get at is, if you want me to take a shit in a PC and mark it secured, I will. Will it sell? Probably not cause in the end… the general users are going to trust a product they feel comfortable with. Google is trying to tell the world… it’s time to let go of your desktop apps and go web based. Users have been using desktop apps since the dawn on the computer… kind of… I mean there really wasn’t desktops or GUI’s for that matter back in the day… but all data was either stored on tape, cards, paper, floppy’s, or really expensive hard drives. It’s like asking the world to stop buying gas and start using solar panels cuz it’s cheaper and better. Well one or two thousand might bite but the rest are so hell bent on their dependence of oil that it’s not going to happen overnight; and I’m sure Google knows about this. But before the world declares this to be an epic war between Microsoft, Apple and Google… look at the facts:
- Google is trying to go after the Netbook Market… which is still new and they have a better chance at a fight… seeing as of now the only one trying to go after netbooks along with Microsoft is Ubuntu… and Google is a more known brand than Ubuntu.
- Google has NOT OFFICIALLY stated they want in on the actual Notebook or Desktop Market. But I’m sure the hackers out there will port Chrome OS to desktop for some weird fucking reason… just like they’re doing to the Android OS.
- Google is not and probably will not be enterprise ready for a long ass time. CIO’s will have fucking balls of steel if they attempt to convince there companies to change there entire infrastructure around this internet based OS.
Windows 7 is gaining a lot of popularity, and there asking price for the up and coming OS is pleasing everyone and their wallets. That and it holds 93% of the operating system market, where Apple holds 5% of the pie and Linux based OS’s hold 1%. People, despite the viruses, malware and security issues trust Microsoft (that and macs are just too damn expensive). And I know Google, even with Chrome OS, knows it isn’t ready to overtake the giant.
THE PREDICTION:
It is Microsoft for the next 10 to 15 years at least. I personally haven’t played with Win 7 yet but the reviews are coming back positive. Chrome OS does not stand a chance. Google has to wait for Generation X to either retire or die. XY, Y, Z and I generations will go with whoever is least full of shit but if Google wants in… they best do it now. Three factors the general user base will look for is the following: Office Software, Productivity, and Video Games. If you capture all three… you will have a fighting chance. But.. I have a feeling.. something to do with Apple!! I’m not looking away from those fucks just yet. With their shift to Intel Boards and Steve Jobs not getting younger, it’s only a matter of time till some smartass walks into an Apple board room and says: “LET’S PORT MAC OS TO PC”. When that happens (and it will… just wait) all they will need to do is get the gaming industry to side with them and its game over for Microsoft’s Market Monopoly.
Expect a new Windows OS in 5 to 7 years, expect Apple to port Mac OS over to PC in 10 to 15 years or when Jobs dies, and expect Chrome to hold a steady market share (I estimate 15%) by 2020.. if they stick with it that is and put there money where there mouths are. End game… Chrome OS could be what drives the general user to finally try a Linux based OS.
A Final Note:
When I attempt to predict outcomes, I look at stone cold facts. I research as much as I can prior to making a prediction. I’m not the modern day Nostradamus nor am I psychic. I have a lot of free time and spend most of it researching trends in technology, politics, entertainment and overall… life in general. I’m not a grammar major nor do I care. I get an idea to write something… be it a rant or logical predictions. The point being, I have too much free time and want to do something for fun. So before you go nit picking my writing, ask yourself why? Are you that offended that one persons opinions and views can hurt you so bad that you’ll retaliate like a little bitch and troll about in the comments section? I’m not a smart ass. I’m a stay at home father… a product of the Bush Administrations raping of our economy. Trust me… I’d rather be developing the next big web application rather than writing bullshit predictions… but once inspiration strikes, one must heed the call and write. With that, I appreciate creative criticism and ask for feedback, but keep it civil. As far as fanboyism goes, I hold no stake in any side winning. I am neutral party.
